Malaysia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2009

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Malaysia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2009 Overviews

The latest Malaysia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.90% ofAsia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 8.28% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil useof 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 25.68mn b/d in 2007. It should average 26.32mn b/d in2008, and then rise to around 29.65mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, in 2007 the region consumed421bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 595bcm targeted for 2013. Production of 336bcm in 2007should reach 483bcm in 2013, but implies net imports rising from 85bcm per annum in 2007 to 111bcmin 2012. This is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Malaysia’s share of gasconsumption in 2007 was 6.72%, while its share of production was 18.01%. By 2013 its share of gasconsumption is forecast to be 5.92%, with the country accounting for 17.58% of supply.

In Q308, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged US3.60 per barrel - down around 3.4%from the Q208 level. The OPEC basket price averaged US2.41 in August and US.16/bbl inSeptember. In October, we are assuming an average of around US3.30. The estimated Q308 averageprices for the main marker blends are now US5.67 for Brent, US7.22 for WTI and US3.43/bblfor Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole are unchanged from thelast oil market report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US0 per barrel for2008. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US3.33, WTI averagingUS4.58/bbl, and Urals at US0.36/bbl. Our central view is that the OPEC basket price will fallfrom US0/bbl in 2008 to US in 2009, before settling around US/bbl in 2010 onwards.

In terms of our refined products forecasts, the BMI composite (Rotterdam, Singapore and New York)global indicator price for unleaded gasoline is expected to average approximately US7.50/bbl during2008. Our jet forecast for 2008 is just under US1/bbl, up from US in 2007. The 60% annualincrease represents the second biggest for the key refined products. With gasoil, BMI is assuming asimilar gain in 2008, to an average US7/bbl. Naphtha is expected to exhibit more modest growth,rising from US to US6/bbl (+41%). During 2009, we are expecting products prices to follow theunderlying crude trend lower, but to prove more resilient than the feedstock - implying a recovery inrefining margins. Gasoline in 2009 is estimated at US3/bbl, with jet falling to US7. Gasoil isexpected to average US2, with naphtha slipping to US/bbl.

Malaysian real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 5.5% for 2008, down from the 2007 level of 6.3%. Weare assuming 5.1% growth in 2009, 4.8% in 2010, 4.6% in 2011, followed by 4.5% in 2012 and 4.4% in2013. State-owned Petronas operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs)under a production sharing system that we believe will result in oil production of 706,000b/d by 2013.Consumption is forecast to rise by up to 2% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 562,000b/d.Malaysia’s gas exports are set to rise from 32bcm in 2007 to 50bcm in 2013, with production climbingfrom 61bcm to 85bcm over the period.

Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a reduction in Malaysia oil production of 15.6%, with crudevolumes falling steadily to 638,000b/d in 2018. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increaseby almost 19.0%, with growth slowing to an assumed 1.5% per annum towards the end of the period andthe country using 611,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise from around 61bcm in 2007 to apossible 100bcm by 2017-2018 (+65.0%). With demand growth of 37.5%, this provides an exportcapability peaking at 62bcm in 2017, largely in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of thenew BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regionaland country-specific projections.

Malaysia ranks equal sixth with Thailand in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating,reflecting a strong resource position and a moderate gas output growth outlook, being offset by extensivestate involvement. The country sits just behind Pakistan - and in a relatively strong position to defend itsposition. The country ranks a lowly 13th in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, reflectingits limited refinery capacity expansion plans, sluggish oil and gas demand growth outlook and relativelyhigh level of retail site intensity.

The latest Malaysia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.90% ofAsia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 8.28% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil useof 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 25.68mn b/d in 2007. It should average 26.32mn b/d in2008, and then rise to around 29.65mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, in 2007 the region consumed421bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 595bcm targeted for 2013. Production of 336bcm in 2007should reach 483bcm in 2013, but implies net imports rising from 85bcm per annum in 2007 to 111bcmin 2012. This is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Malaysia’s share of gasconsumption in 2007 was 6.72%, while its share of production was 18.01%. By 2013 its share of gasconsumption is forecast to be 5.92%, with the country accounting for 17.58% of supply.

In Q308, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged US3.60 per barrel - down around 3.4%from the Q208 level. The OPEC basket price averaged US2.41 in August and US.16/bbl inSeptember. In October, we are assuming an average of around US3.30. The estimated Q308 averageprices for the main marker blends are now US5.67 for Brent, US7.22 for WTI and US3.43/bblfor Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole are unchanged from thelast oil market report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US0 per barrel for2008. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US3.33, WTI averagingUS4.58/bbl, and Urals at US0.36/bbl. Our central view is that the OPEC basket price will fallfrom US0/bbl in 2008 to US in 2009, before settling around US/bbl in 2010 onwards.

In terms of our refined products forecasts, the BMI composite (Rotterdam, Singapore and New York)global indicator price for unleaded gasoline is expected to average approximately US7.50/bbl during2008. Our jet forecast for 2008 is just under US1/bbl, up from US in 2007. The 60% annualincrease represents the second biggest for the key refined products. With gasoil, BMI is assuming asimilar gain in 2008, to an average US7/bbl. Naphtha is expected to exhibit more modest growth,rising from US to US6/bbl (+41%). During 2009, we are expecting products prices to follow theunderlying crude trend lower, but to prove more resilient than the feedstock - implying a recovery inrefining margins. Gasoline in 2009 is estimated at US3/bbl, with jet falling to US7. Gasoil isexpected to average US2, with naphtha slipping to US/bbl.

Malaysian real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 5.5% for 2008, down from the 2007 level of 6.3%. Weare assuming 5.1% growth in 2009, 4.8% in 2010, 4.6% in 2011, followed by 4.5% in 2012 and 4.4% in2013. State-owned Petronas operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs)under a production sharing system that we believe will result in oil production of 706,000b/d by 2013.Consumption is forecast to rise by up to 2% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 562,000b/d.Malaysia’s gas exports are set to rise from 32bcm in 2007 to 50bcm in 2013, with production climbingfrom 61bcm to 85bcm over the period.

Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a reduction in Malaysia oil production of 15.6%, with crudevolumes falling steadily to 638,000b/d in 2018. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increaseby almost 19.0%, with growth slowing to an assumed 1.5% per annum towards the end of the period andthe country using 611,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise from around 61bcm in 2007 to apossible 100bcm by 2017-2018 (+65.0%). With demand growth of 37.5%, this provides an exportcapability peaking at 62bcm in 2017, largely in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of thenew BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regionaland country-specific projections.

Malaysia ranks equal sixth with Thailand in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating,reflecting a strong resource position and a moderate gas output growth outlook, being offset by extensivestate involvement. The country sits just behind Pakistan - and in a relatively strong position to defend itsposition. The country ranks a lowly 13th in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, reflectingits limited refinery capacity expansion plans, sluggish oil and gas demand growth outlook and relativelyhigh level of retail site intensity.

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