Malaysia Defence and Security Report Q2 2009

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Malaysia Defence and Security Report Q2 2009 Overviews

We have revised down our 2009 growth forecast for Malaysia from 3.1% to 1.4% after the latestindustrial production data revealed that factory output contracted at its fastest pace in seven years inNovember. Moreover, with the global economy unlikely to pick up until the first half of 2010, we havealso revised down our 2010 growth forecast from 4.6% to 3.2%. While planned fiscal stimulus andanticipated interest rate cuts (we are expecting Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to follow up its 25bpsinterest rate reduction on November 24 2008 with a total of 50bps worth of cuts in 2009) should help tokeep growth propped up in 2009, we do not believe that they will be enough to protect the economy froma weakening external environment and its knock-on effects on private consumption and investment.

Defence Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has indicated that a portion of Malaysia’sMYR7bn economic stimulus package would go to the Defence Ministry for additional developmentprojects. Major defence procurements at the start of 2009 included two contracts totalling MYR603mnwith two companies supplying parts and components to the Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN) for five years.

It was also announced at the start of 2009 that the country’s first submarine, a French-made ScorpeneclassKD Abdul Rahman, is scheduled for delivery in July 2009. The Sepanggar Naval base, a 190hanaval base project costing MYR636mn, is also scheduled to be completed in July. The submarine will behoused at the new naval base. A second submarine KD Tun Abdul Razak, is expected to arrive at the endof the year.

In February 2009 the Malaysian government announced that military assets and resources of ASEANmember countries would be used in tackling non-traditional threats such as providing natural disasterrelief and curbing crime in border areas such as human and drug-trafficking. Malaysian Prime MinisterDatuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said such assistance, however, would only be provided after thecountry affected by the natural disasters, such as the cyclone or tsunami, requested it. He said agreementon the use of the military assets was a follow-up to the decision of the ASEAN Defence Ministers’Meeting (ADMM) in Kuala Lumpur in 2005 which called on the defence sector to also participate in therealisation of ASEAN's goal of forming a regional community that was happy, peaceful, safe and stable.

We continue to expect that the Malaysian government will increase defence spending by 4% annually, inreal terms, over the coming years. Absolute increases will depend in part on how the country’s economyfares in the face of the global financial crisis.

We have revised down our 2009 growth forecast for Malaysia from 3.1% to 1.4% after the latestindustrial production data revealed that factory output contracted at its fastest pace in seven years inNovember. Moreover, with the global economy unlikely to pick up until the first half of 2010, we havealso revised down our 2010 growth forecast from 4.6% to 3.2%. While planned fiscal stimulus andanticipated interest rate cuts (we are expecting Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to follow up its 25bpsinterest rate reduction on November 24 2008 with a total of 50bps worth of cuts in 2009) should help tokeep growth propped up in 2009, we do not believe that they will be enough to protect the economy froma weakening external environment and its knock-on effects on private consumption and investment.

Defence Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has indicated that a portion of Malaysia’sMYR7bn economic stimulus package would go to the Defence Ministry for additional developmentprojects. Major defence procurements at the start of 2009 included two contracts totalling MYR603mnwith two companies supplying parts and components to the Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN) for five years.

It was also announced at the start of 2009 that the country’s first submarine, a French-made ScorpeneclassKD Abdul Rahman, is scheduled for delivery in July 2009. The Sepanggar Naval base, a 190hanaval base project costing MYR636mn, is also scheduled to be completed in July. The submarine will behoused at the new naval base. A second submarine KD Tun Abdul Razak, is expected to arrive at the endof the year.

In February 2009 the Malaysian government announced that military assets and resources of ASEANmember countries would be used in tackling non-traditional threats such as providing natural disasterrelief and curbing crime in border areas such as human and drug-trafficking. Malaysian Prime MinisterDatuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said such assistance, however, would only be provided after thecountry affected by the natural disasters, such as the cyclone or tsunami, requested it. He said agreementon the use of the military assets was a follow-up to the decision of the ASEAN Defence Ministers’Meeting (ADMM) in Kuala Lumpur in 2005 which called on the defence sector to also participate in therealisation of ASEAN's goal of forming a regional community that was happy, peaceful, safe and stable.

We continue to expect that the Malaysian government will increase defence spending by 4% annually, inreal terms, over the coming years. Absolute increases will depend in part on how the country’s economyfares in the face of the global financial crisis.

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