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It is unlikely that Malaysia's automotive industry will repeat 2008's 12.5% growth this year. In its latest Malaysia Automotives Report, BMI has revised its sales forecast for 2009 downwards to a decline of 10%, largely as a result of the global financial slowdown. The market is already following the expected downturn as sales for January fell by 17.5% to 37,427 units. However, the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) attributed the decline to a shorter working month, due to the Chinese New Year, and said that sales could have been worse were it not for the launch of new models.
There is some cause for optimism then as both BMI and the MAA forecast a rebound in sales growth by 2010. At year-end 2013, the end of our five-year forecast period, we expect sales to be around the 600,000 units mark. BMI also expects national manufacturer Proton to regain lost market share by 2010 as it enters into a small car agreement with Japan's Mitsubishi Motor. Despite posting a loss for the third quarter of its current financial year ending March 31, Proton remains profitable for the first nine months of the financial year, with a net profit of MYR21.1mn (US.69mn) compared with a loss of MYR32.9mn (US.87mn) in FY08.
The tie-up suggests that Malaysia is still attractive to international manufacturers, despite its ninth position in BMI's Business Environment Ratings for the automotive industry in Asia Pacific with a rating of 50.2 from a possible 100. However, there is room for improvement in terms of the country's regulatory environment. While the country is a leading light of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) trade bloc, which has made it a popular choice for regional production activities in the autos sector, there is the potential for greater things if a proposed free trade agreement with the US is finalised. In terms of the market itself, production growth potential receives an average rating, while potential sales growth is low in comparison with its peers.
Most of the major players started 2009 with a slump in sales. Leading international brand Toyota Motor saw sales for January fall by around 40% y-o-y, while domestic market leaders Perodua and Proton posted declines of 5% and 4%, respectively. However, Japan's Honda Motor managed to post its best ever monthly sales, largely bolstered by the success of its new City model. Sales of 3,815 units were enough to claim 10% of the total market while Honda's Malacca-based plant is working at full capacity to meet demand for the model. Although it is still early in the year and Honda's market share is still way off the 18.5% claimed by Toyota in 2008, there is potential for a shake-up among the international giants.
It is unlikely that Malaysia's automotive industry will repeat 2008's 12.5% growth this year. In its latest Malaysia Automotives Report, BMI has revised its sales forecast for 2009 downwards to a decline of 10%, largely as a result of the global financial slowdown. The market is already following the expected downturn as sales for January fell by 17.5% to 37,427 units. However, the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) attributed the decline to a shorter working month, due to the Chinese New Year, and said that sales could have been worse were it not for the launch of new models.
There is some cause for optimism then as both BMI and the MAA forecast a rebound in sales growth by 2010. At year-end 2013, the end of our five-year forecast period, we expect sales to be around the 600,000 units mark. BMI also expects national manufacturer Proton to regain lost market share by 2010 as it enters into a small car agreement with Japan's Mitsubishi Motor. Despite posting a loss for the third quarter of its current financial year ending March 31, Proton remains profitable for the first nine months of the financial year, with a net profit of MYR21.1mn (US.69mn) compared with a loss of MYR32.9mn (US.87mn) in FY08.
The tie-up suggests that Malaysia is still attractive to international manufacturers, despite its ninth position in BMI's Business Environment Ratings for the automotive industry in Asia Pacific with a rating of 50.2 from a possible 100. However, there is room for improvement in terms of the country's regulatory environment. While the country is a leading light of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) trade bloc, which has made it a popular choice for regional production activities in the autos sector, there is the potential for greater things if a proposed free trade agreement with the US is finalised. In terms of the market itself, production growth potential receives an average rating, while potential sales growth is low in comparison with its peers.
Most of the major players started 2009 with a slump in sales. Leading international brand Toyota Motor saw sales for January fall by around 40% y-o-y, while domestic market leaders Perodua and Proton posted declines of 5% and 4%, respectively. However, Japan's Honda Motor managed to post its best ever monthly sales, largely bolstered by the success of its new City model. Sales of 3,815 units were enough to claim 10% of the total market while Honda's Malacca-based plant is working at full capacity to meet demand for the model. Although it is still early in the year and Honda's market share is still way off the 18.5% claimed by Toyota in 2008, there is potential for a shake-up among the international giants.
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