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Industry Forecasts
The private sector is still acting as a drag on construction activity. Against this backdrop, we are forecasting that Malaysia’s construction industry will contract by 4.9% in 2009, little changed from the forecast of a 4.3% contraction that we made last quarter. For 2010, the prospects remain difficult. Although we expect an economic recovery - with Malaysia set to return to positive overall economic growth, according to our forecasts - this recovery will likely be anaemic. Moreover, given the fiscal constraints and problems in public spending execution, the construction sector will lag the overall recovery. In fact, we predict that the construction sector will contract by 1.6% in 2010. Thereafter, the sector is expected to struggle to move back into positive real growth territory during the remainder of our forecast period. Risks to our updated forecasts are largely to the upside for 2009-2014, given the bearish scenario that we predict for construction sector output and other key variables. If the government follows through fully on its planned spending initiatives - or the global economy recovers more quickly than anticipated by our core scenario - then the infrastructure sector will register a better performance than we currently forecast.
Company Analysis
Despite a pronounced contraction in Malaysia’s construction sector, key infrastructure heavyweights - notably Gamuda and WCT Berhad - remained profitable in the six months to the end of June 2009. This testifies to the companies’ strong order backlogs, which are in part due to their geographic diversification. This diversification should continue to serve these companies well across the remainder of our forecast period, as our core forecasting scenario envisages that most countries’ construction sectors (Malaysia aside) will experience significant recoveries from 2010 onward, thanks to an improvement in global economic growth.
Infrastructure Business Environment And Project Finance Risk Ratings
In our newly updated Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings, Malaysia performs poorly. The country sits in 10th place in the region, out of a total of 14 countries in our index. Poor sector growth prospects weigh on the country’s rating. For our Project Finance Ratings, Malaysia fares rather better - it is placed sixth out of 14 countries. The country scores particularly well for the ‘Design and Construction’ variable, while it scores competently in terms of ‘Commissioning and Operating’.
Industry Forecasts
The private sector is still acting as a drag on construction activity. Against this backdrop, we are forecasting that Malaysia’s construction industry will contract by 4.9% in 2009, little changed from the forecast of a 4.3% contraction that we made last quarter. For 2010, the prospects remain difficult. Although we expect an economic recovery - with Malaysia set to return to positive overall economic growth, according to our forecasts - this recovery will likely be anaemic. Moreover, given the fiscal constraints and problems in public spending execution, the construction sector will lag the overall recovery. In fact, we predict that the construction sector will contract by 1.6% in 2010. Thereafter, the sector is expected to struggle to move back into positive real growth territory during the remainder of our forecast period. Risks to our updated forecasts are largely to the upside for 2009-2014, given the bearish scenario that we predict for construction sector output and other key variables. If the government follows through fully on its planned spending initiatives - or the global economy recovers more quickly than anticipated by our core scenario - then the infrastructure sector will register a better performance than we currently forecast.
Company Analysis
Despite a pronounced contraction in Malaysia’s construction sector, key infrastructure heavyweights - notably Gamuda and WCT Berhad - remained profitable in the six months to the end of June 2009. This testifies to the companies’ strong order backlogs, which are in part due to their geographic diversification. This diversification should continue to serve these companies well across the remainder of our forecast period, as our core forecasting scenario envisages that most countries’ construction sectors (Malaysia aside) will experience significant recoveries from 2010 onward, thanks to an improvement in global economic growth.
Infrastructure Business Environment And Project Finance Risk Ratings
In our newly updated Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings, Malaysia performs poorly. The country sits in 10th place in the region, out of a total of 14 countries in our index. Poor sector growth prospects weigh on the country’s rating. For our Project Finance Ratings, Malaysia fares rather better - it is placed sixth out of 14 countries. The country scores particularly well for the ‘Design and Construction’ variable, while it scores competently in terms of ‘Commissioning and Operating’.
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