Malaysia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2009

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Malaysia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2009 Overviews

The latest Malaysia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.96% ofAsia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 8.55% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil useof 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.13mn b/d in 2008. It should average26.50mn b/d in 2009, then rise to around 28.99mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, in 2008 the regionconsumed an estimated 443bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 577bcm is targeted for 2013.

Production of an estimated 361bcm in 2008 should reach 483bcm in 2013, but implies net imports risingfrom an estimated 82bcm per annum in 2008 to 94bcm in 2013. Malaysia’s share of gas consumption in2008 was an estimated 6.77%, while its share of production was 18.12%. By 2013 its share of gasconsumption is forecast to be 6.1%, with the country accounting for 18.58% of supply.

In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in the fourth quarter of 2008 (Q408) was anestimated US.53 per barrel (bbl), down sharply from the US3.49 recorded during the previousthree months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-onyear(y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US.06,US.33 and US.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPECbasket price of US/bbl (-45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US.00. The new full yearforecast implies Brent crude at US.65, WTI averaging US.63/bbl and Urals at US.48 for 2009.

For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground toUS.00 in 2011 and US.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption ofUS.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US.00/bbl.

In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US.90 in January to ahigh of US.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US.20 - justover 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US/bbl,assuming a monthly low of US.40 in January and a high of US.30/bbl in December. The full-yearoutturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price isforecast to range from US.90 in January to US.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level ofUS.20/bbl.

Malaysian real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 3.1% for 2009, down from the estimated 2008 level of5.5%. We are assuming 4.6% growth in 2010, 4.4% in 2011/12, followed by 4.3% in 2013. State-ownedPetronas operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs) under a productionsharing system that we believe will result in oil production of 745,000b/d by 2013. Consumption isforecast to rise by up to 2% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 567,000b/d. Malaysia’s gas exportsare set to rise from an estimated 35.5bcm in 2008 to 49.8bcm in 2013, with production climbing from65.5bcm to 85.0bcm over the period.

Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a reduction in Malaysia oil production of 4.6%, with crudevolumes falling steadily to 720,000b/d in 2018. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increaseby 20%, with growth slowing to an assumed 1.5% per annum towards the end of the period and thecountry using 617,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise from around 65.5bcm in 2008 to apossible 105bcm by 2018. With demand growth of 37.5%, this provides an export capability reaching66.1bcm in 2018, largely in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in theappendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.

Malaysia now ranks equal fifth with Pakistan in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating,reflecting a strong resource position and a moderate gas output growth outlook, being offset by extensivestate involvement. The country sits just behind the Philippines - and in a relatively strong position todefend its position. The country ranks a lowly 13th in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating,reflecting its limited refinery capacity expansion plans, sluggish oil and gas demand growth outlook andrelatively high level of retail site intensity.

The latest Malaysia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.96% ofAsia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 8.55% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil useof 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.13mn b/d in 2008. It should average26.50mn b/d in 2009, then rise to around 28.99mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, in 2008 the regionconsumed an estimated 443bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 577bcm is targeted for 2013.

Production of an estimated 361bcm in 2008 should reach 483bcm in 2013, but implies net imports risingfrom an estimated 82bcm per annum in 2008 to 94bcm in 2013. Malaysia’s share of gas consumption in2008 was an estimated 6.77%, while its share of production was 18.12%. By 2013 its share of gasconsumption is forecast to be 6.1%, with the country accounting for 18.58% of supply.

In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in the fourth quarter of 2008 (Q408) was anestimated US.53 per barrel (bbl), down sharply from the US3.49 recorded during the previousthree months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-onyear(y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US.06,US.33 and US.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPECbasket price of US/bbl (-45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US.00. The new full yearforecast implies Brent crude at US.65, WTI averaging US.63/bbl and Urals at US.48 for 2009.

For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground toUS.00 in 2011 and US.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption ofUS.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US.00/bbl.

In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US.90 in January to ahigh of US.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US.20 - justover 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US/bbl,assuming a monthly low of US.40 in January and a high of US.30/bbl in December. The full-yearoutturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price isforecast to range from US.90 in January to US.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level ofUS.20/bbl.

Malaysian real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 3.1% for 2009, down from the estimated 2008 level of5.5%. We are assuming 4.6% growth in 2010, 4.4% in 2011/12, followed by 4.3% in 2013. State-ownedPetronas operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs) under a productionsharing system that we believe will result in oil production of 745,000b/d by 2013. Consumption isforecast to rise by up to 2% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 567,000b/d. Malaysia’s gas exportsare set to rise from an estimated 35.5bcm in 2008 to 49.8bcm in 2013, with production climbing from65.5bcm to 85.0bcm over the period.

Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a reduction in Malaysia oil production of 4.6%, with crudevolumes falling steadily to 720,000b/d in 2018. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increaseby 20%, with growth slowing to an assumed 1.5% per annum towards the end of the period and thecountry using 617,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise from around 65.5bcm in 2008 to apossible 105bcm by 2018. With demand growth of 37.5%, this provides an export capability reaching66.1bcm in 2018, largely in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in theappendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.

Malaysia now ranks equal fifth with Pakistan in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating,reflecting a strong resource position and a moderate gas output growth outlook, being offset by extensivestate involvement. The country sits just behind the Philippines - and in a relatively strong position todefend its position. The country ranks a lowly 13th in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating,reflecting its limited refinery capacity expansion plans, sluggish oil and gas demand growth outlook andrelatively high level of retail site intensity.

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